Sunday, June 15, 2014

Best Buy Smashfest, By the Numbers

At a recent Smash Bros "Smashfest" event at a Best Buy in Madison, WI, I collected some data regarding character selection, stage selection, and wins for a portion of the matches. There are several relevant pieces of information about this data:

-Data was recorded for 68 of the matches (I'd estimate there were between 80-100 total that day) during the afternoon of 6/14/2014. Each match included four players, and each set of four players played two matches, each lasting two minutes.
-Unlike locations in larger markets, the line at this store was short enough that players could get back in line and play another match if they wanted, which several players did.
-The data does not include the matches I played in.

As such, I am not claiming that the data is unbiased or universally applicable, however I still think that some conclusions can be drawn.

Character Selections

Character Selections Wins
Bowser 5 1
Donkey Kong 2 1
Fox 6 2
Greninja 28 10
Kirby 12 1
Link 18 4
Little Mac 28 4
Mario 10 0
Marth 13 7
Mega Man 28 8
Olimar 5 0
Pikachu 11 2
Pit 4 2
Random* 6 1
Rosalina and Luma 25 5
Samus 7 3
Sonic 6 2
Villager 19 6
Wii Fit Trainer 19 3
Zelda 9 2
Zero Suit Samus 11 4

*Of the six times the random option was chosen, Donkey Kong, Greninja, Little Mac, Olimar, Pit, and Villager each came up once. Greninja was the randomly selected character that won a match.

It's clear from the data above that the new characters were selected the most often, and presumably also the ones players were most interested in. Despite there being more than twice as many returning characters available, more than half (55.26%) the directly selected characters were the new ones. The only returning character that came close to being selected as often as the newcomers was Link, one selection behind Villager and Wii Fit Trainer. It is worth noting, however, that new characters were approximately as successful as returners-discounting randoms, 26.05% of returning characters that were selected won, versus 24.49% for new characters.

Stage Selections

Stage Selections
Battlefield 10
Mushroom Kingdom U 6
Skyloft 4
Pilotwings 8
Wily Castle 7
Boxing Ring 5
Town and City 6
Coliseum 4
Random 18

Stages were selected more evenly than characters, suggesting a more even preference (or lack thereof).

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